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The opening afternoon of this current Arc meeting took place in bright weather on Saturday, but the chunks of grass being thrown up in the Group One Prix du Cadran were a sign of the significant rain that had fallen since Friday evening, changing the outlook and narrative of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

“Proper soft and it’s going to take a lot of getting,” was the verdict of the winning jockey after his victory on his mount in the first Prix Chaudenay, a view that was echoed by Tom Marquand, the Cadran winner aboard George Scott’s his horse.

“It’s very soft but not too deep,” Marquand said. “I think it would be an unfairness to call it deep because they’ve done a excellent job of having us on the nicest part of the track, and on Sunday it will open out again to freshen it up, but it’s challenging.”

For good or ill, the prospects of all 17 competitors have been influenced by the abrupt softening of the track, but the biggest casualties in the conditions gamble have been the 3 runners from Japan, bidding to succeed where thirty-three compatriots have fallen short over the last 56 years.

Only a week ago, one contender, another runner and a third horse were all priced up between eight-to-one and 16-1, the good-to-soft ground had survived well beyond its usual September cut-off point at Longchamp and there was even talk of Byzantine Dream edging towards the top of the betting as punters latched on to the selection of Oisin Murphy to ride.

All three horses were also entering the Arc following a win in a established trial, an unprecedented degree of quality for a Japan’s bid. But Thursday’s allotment for starting positions left both Byzantine Dream and the contender marooned in outside gates, the rain has added to the scale of their task and all three are now offered at 14-1 or higher.

This does not, of course, mean that they are without hope, but each will start with their chance markedly reduced. Japanese racing is run almost exclusively on good ground or faster, so the stallions and mares in its bloodlines are fast-ground horses. It typically requires a peak performance to capture an the race, and the three are not expected to run up to their very best form on the soggy ground or, in the case of Byzantine Dream and another, from a wide gate.

The balance has shifted appreciably towards the European contenders, and runners from the host nation, Ireland and Britain now occupy the top six positions in the odds for what is an unusually competitive renewal of the continent’s premier race.

The veteran trainer is looking for a ninth win in the Arc and will like his prospects with his contender, a nine-to-one choice, and Cualificar, at around twelve-to-one.

Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, undefeated in four starts this year including the Epsom Oaks and the Curragh classic, is a slight favourite from the Prix Vermeille winner, the filly, who was a distance and a bit behind Bluestocking in second 12 months ago.

The mare, the beaten favourite when fourth-placed previously, is a nine-to-one option to give the trainer a record-extending ninth Arc, while another contender, a close runner-up to the Japanese horse over 10 furlongs at Longchamp in their trial last month, is a 12-1 prospect with Kalapana, the Ascot second, and an additional Fabre-trained entry, Cualificar.

Each of these have plenty to support their case, but the odd doubt about their chance too. Minnie Hauk has a difficult draw against the inside in stall one, which has not housed the Arc victor since two thousand eight, while the filly won a Group One in which the favourite, the expected contender, obviously did not manage to perform near form. Kalapana, in contrast, was a far short of her King George performance in her Arc preparation at Kempton last month, and the runner has not been obviously improved as a four-year-old.

This makes one option and Cualificar as appealing choices, not least because they are also the probable contenders to take a significant step forward on the occasion that matters most.

Daryz, who was probably unlucky not to beat Croix Du Nord last time out, has just six runs in the record and while he is moving up to a mile and a half for the debut, he is a result of the the owner’s breeding operation and almost certain to appreciate the extra two furlongs.

Cualificar (the race time), however, is nearly equally untested at 12 furlongs, having made his first start at the full Arc distance only last month when he was victorious in the Prix Niel. His trainer’s history in the event speaks for itself – Fabre has already won twice as many wins as any rival trainer in its 105-year history – and he has plotted a careful route towards Longchamp with his latest three-year-old contender.

He was a comfortable victor of the Prix Niel – the launch-pad for Fabre’s 6 previous three-year-old Arc winners – and while he has something to find with the favorite and Aventure on ratings, looks nearly sure to improve markedly on that showing on race day.

William Buick will also have plenty of choices from an perfect draw in stall eight and at around twelve-to-one with UK oddsmakers, the horse is an excellent bet to provide France’s greatest handler one more victory in his country’s most famous event.