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Having scored nine times in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a term - he scored 11 goals in his initial seven matches in 2022-23 and double digits last year - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

The fact that not one of his nine strikes have been penalties makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so soon in the campaign.

First, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, equally significant, the number and quality of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the modest opening his regular challengers for the award have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has traditionally converted from the number and quality of opportunities he's received.

It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

And if we look at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this term from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to find the net than any other player.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than any other player in the division, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as the remainder of the league.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is shown by analyzing the number and quality of scoring situations that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to any other player.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in the previous term).

What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an xG value of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to convert per attempt - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the opening of last term.

Essentially, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been considerably more favorable to convert from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so powerfully is, as mentioned above, not uncommon for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had scored 10 goals - a quartet more than every other footballer and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, a touchdown more than the City forward.

This season, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players put together so far.

Whether because of injuries - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - protracted transfer stories in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That contest is significantly tighter at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The fact Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the top chance quality metric of the three players without yet taking any spot-kicks makes him the favourite.

But since Kane and Mbappe are two of the best goal-scorers in European football in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.